Tim Cook wasn’t kidding when he said the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are the best iPhones ever. The new phones have bigger screens, run an operating system that allows users to customize their experiences in an increasing variety of ways, and even incorporate different kinds of keyboards. If you’re an iPhone user, there is no good reason to bat your eyes at fancy Android (GOOG) phones anymore.
But what if you already have an Android? Cook has boasted that the new iPhones will inspire tons of converts, but much of what’s new for Apple (AAPL) is old hat for Android. Both systems offer phones with big screens and powerful cameras. Software innovations available for one type of phone are quickly adopted by the other. Price is essentially not an issue. Neither, necessarily, is design.
If you’re starting from scratch, the iPhone may be the best choice on the market. At this point, there aren’t many people who haven’t picked a side, and jumping ship is still a hassle. Yes, phone carriers will help you export your photos and contacts from one operating system to another. But apps—and the average smartphone owner uses about 27 each month, according to a recent study by Nielsen—aren’t coming with you.
For a Galaxy Note user, then, going over to the iPhone 6 Plus means building up again from zero. And for what? Apple’s operating system may be more intuitive to someone who has never touched a smartphone before, but it’s not going to be any easier for people who have spent over an hour staring at their Android phone every day for the last two to four years. Any benefits are probably outweighed by the drawbacks to abandoning the investment someone has already made.
Phone manufacturers make it hard to switch on purpose: They want you locked in forever. That’s the idea behind the Apple Watch and Apple Pay, which don’t work for Android. (Ditto for Samsung’s (005930:KS) Gear S watch and Gear VR headset, which are made to work with the company’s other devices.)
This doesn’t mean that Apple can’t convince people to abandon their Galaxys; it just makes it harder. Traditionally, Apple’s advantage has been the quality and quantity of available apps. If you’ve wanted the best apps the minute they came out, you had to have an iPhone. Android—and, to an even greater extent, BlackBerry (BBRY) andMicrosoft (MSFT)—have had trouble convincing developers to create software for their devices: Apple users spend more on apps, which means bigger potential payouts for developers. After it takes its share, Apple sends about twice as much money to developers from consumer spending on apps as Android does—with half the total number of users. (The same incentives exist for merchants as they consider whether to participate in Apple’s mobile payments system: They know people carrying iPhones have deep pockets.)
Apple’s advantage in areas like this, though, isn’t as significant as it once was. Of this week’s top 25 most downloaded free apps for iOS devices, only five aren’t available for Android. One, an emoji program, isn’t much different from what’s available in the Google Play store. The rest are games, and at least two of those have an Android version in the works. As for payments, once the technology is in place for merchants to accept Apple Pay, the adoption of Google Wallet or some such won’t be far behind. Neither merchants nor developers are being compelled to choose between Apple and Android, so many will be happy to work with both.
In the end, there are two kinds of Android users who will end up buying the new iPhones: those who have always wanted one but couldn’t live without a bigger screen, and anyone who really wants the Apple Watch—although those people probably have iPhones already.
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